Melbourne property market 2024: June growth masks annual slowdown

Melbourne's property market has posted modest quarterly growth in the June quarter, but the annual comparison tells a starkly different story—a cautionary tale for vendors and investors betting on sustained momentum.

While median house prices across greater Melbourne have climbed roughly 2–3 per cent since March, pushing the median towards $930,000, the same quarter last year delivered substantially stronger gains. This deceleration reflects the cumulative weight of interest rate pressure and affordability constraints that have reshaped buyer behaviour since mid-2023.

The divergence is most pronounced in traditionally buoyant pockets. Bayside suburbs—long a drawcard for owner-occupiers and upsizers—have seen annual growth rates contract to single figures, with suburbs like Brighton and Beaumaris experiencing far softer demand than the frenzied conditions of mid-2024. Similarly, inner-east hotspots including Hawthorn and Camberwell are showing signs of fatigue, with many properties taking longer to sell and vendors increasingly willing to negotiate.

Units tell a different tale. The apartment sector, buoyed by rental yields and younger buyer interest, has held up better on an annual basis, with inner Melbourne units around the $600,000–$700,000 mark recording steadier demand. This divergence underscores a widening split between the detached house market and the flat market—a pattern likely to persist as interest rates remain elevated.

The Frankston corridor, where growth had been a standout narrative, continues to attract buyers seeking value relative to established suburbs. However, even this region is experiencing moderated gains compared to its 12-month-ago trajectory, suggesting the entire Victorian market is grinding through a normalisation phase rather than accelerating.

Auction volumes remain elevated across Melbourne's established suburbs, particularly around the Dandenong Ranges and Mornington Peninsula approaches, yet clearance rates have dipped to the low–to–mid 70s in many areas—a stark shift from the 80+ per cent clearances that characterised last year's June quarter.

For prospective buyers, the softer annual growth backdrop offers negotiating leverage, particularly in suburbs where vendors' price expectations haven't adjusted to current market realities. Conversely, those considering a sale should acknowledge that quarterly momentum, while present, lacks the urgency that drove the 2024–2025 cycle.

As the RBA signals patience on rate cuts, the quarterly-versus-annual gap is likely to persist. Melbourne's market has shifted from boom to rebalance—a grinding upward trajectory rather than the rapid appreciation that characterised recent years.

This article was compiled by AI and screened before publishing. See our editorial standards.